Abstract
Healthcare systems worldwide are facing problems in providing health care to patients in a pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19). The pandemic causes an extreme disease to spread with fluctuating needs among patients, which significantly affect the capacity and overall performance of healthcare systems. In addition, its impact on the sustainability of the entire economic and social system is enormous and certain sustainable management strategies need to be selected. To meet the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and ensure sustainable performance, national healthcare systems must adapt to new circumstances. This paper proposes an original multi-criteria methodology for the sustainable selection of strategic guidelines for the reorganization of a healthcare system under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The selection of an appropriate strategic guideline is made on the basis of defined criteria and depending on infection capacity and pandemic spread risk. The criteria for the evaluation of strategic guidelines were defined on the basis of a survey in which the medical personnel engaged in the crisis response team during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Serbia participated. The Level-Based Weight Assessment (LBWA) model and Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) method were used to determine the weight coefficient criteria, while a novel fuzzy Ranking of Alternatives through Functional Mapping of Criterion Subintervals into a Single Interval (RAFSI) model was used to evaluate the strategic guidelines. The proposed multi-criteria methodology was tested in a case study in the Republic of Serbia. The validity of the proposed methodology is shown through the simulation of changes in input parameters of Bonferroni aggregation functions and through a comparison with other multi-criteria methodologies.
Highlights
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2020, when the international mission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 virus research began.The pandemic was caused by a new virus from the coronavirus group, which was first isolated in 1962
Due to all of the stated specific characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to continuously analyze all weaknesses and strengths of healthcare systems, forming a plan based on adaptive models of healthcare system organization since immediate requirements and the unpredictability of COVID-19 infection require agility and the flexibility of all services to respond in a timely manner, especially qualified medical personnel
This paper proposes a multi-criteria model for the development of strategic guidelines for the adjustment and reorganization of the healthcare system in the Republic of Serbia under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic
Summary
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2020, when the international mission of SARS-CoV-2 virus research began. This paper proposes a multi-criteria model for the development of strategic guidelines for the adjustment and reorganization of the healthcare system in the Republic of Serbia under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on pandemic infection capacity and the prediction of disease spread, we determined five levels of risk on the basis of which a multi-criteria model for the selection of strategic guidelines is defined. The aim of this paper is to develop a multi-criteria model for the evaluation and selection of strategic guidelines that define a strategy for reorganization and adjustment of healthcare systems under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The multi-criteria methodology allows the evaluation and selection of a strategy for the reorganization of a healthcare system of a region/country depending on a risk level defined on the basis of pandemic infection capacity and the prediction of disease spread;. In the fourth section of the paper, conclusions and guidelines for future research are presented
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