Abstract
In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a mediumterm precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a short-term precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with KS ≥ 13:5 (M ≥ 6:0), that occurred in the period 2009–2018.
Highlights
In [1, 2], the results of ionospheric observations were presented for the purpose of short-term (3-5 days) assessment of the waiting period for Kamchatka earthquakes
There is a natural task to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes, to assess their prognostic efficiency in order to develop a methodology for assessing the area and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0)
In the error diagram (Fig. 8) the values (τ, ν) obtained for the range KS ≥ 13.5 lie below the lower limit of 99% of the confidence interval, which can be interpreted as a high degree of reliability of the revealed connection of the considered complex of ionospheric precursors with earthquakes of this range of energy class that occurred at distances up to 500 km from the observation point
Summary
In [1, 2], the results of ionospheric observations were presented for the purpose of short-term (3-5 days) assessment of the waiting period for Kamchatka earthquakes. The application of the theoretical-probabilistic approach to the catalogue of Kamchatka earthquakes [3, 4] allowed to calculate the probability of seismic events entering the seismofocal zone of the Kuril Islands and southern Kamchatka and to establish for it the growth of seismic activity (twice) that occurred during 2007–2010. This made it possible to determine the area of expectation (medium-term forecast) of major earthquakes. This work is devoted to the solution of this problem
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
