Abstract
We developed the method for determining the probability of achieving the maximum value of loads from the cargo that is stored at the port terminal warehouse on the front wall of the under conditions of uncertainty of the moments of vessel approach and their loading. The method is based on the construction and analysis of the stochastic model of operation of port terminal, consisting of single and warehouse together with the reloading equipment. The process of the arrival of vessels with cargo is supposed to be described by the model of complex Poisson process; the whole cargo unloaded from the vessels arrives at warehouse and is transported from warehouse by the land transport in uniform way at constant intensity. The probabilistic model of the operation of the system a warehouse – berth at the port terminal was constructed with the help of the mathematical theory of risk. We formulated the criterion of safe operation of at its structural elements being influenced by the random load of the cargo, stored in warehouse in the rear of the berth, as the probability of not exceeding the maximum admissible value of the pressure on the front wall of the (according to the Coulomb law). To find the probability of failure, the linear integral equation of the convolution type, the solution to which was found for series of particular cases, was derived. Based on the found probability for failure, two practically important problems were stated and solved. First, the values of intensity of cargo transporting from warehouse, which ensures the absence of failure with the small enough assigned probability, were determined. Second, we stated the criterion of the economic viability of insuring the port losses as result of elimination of consequences of failure due to the maximum admissible value being exceeded by loads over the assigned period of time. The numerical illustration of the specified problems was presented
Highlights
The adequacy of the methods for evaluating the reliability of a structure is known to be determined by reliability and accuracy of the models of loading, models of operation of materials, from which the elements of berth structures are made, and the models of occurrence of failures.Specification of only separate of the listed models is not likely to give any practically acceptable recommendations, unless the level of accuracy of the other remains insufficient.As regards berth facilities, in the course of formalization and modeling actual operational loads that influence them, the additional difficulty is to take into consideration the probabilistic nature of loads
In the course of formalization and modeling actual operational loads that influence them, the additional difficulty is to take into consideration the probabilistic nature of loads
In some major seaports of the world, there has been a tendency over recent years to place too large amount of cargo in the rear zone of berths without taking into consideration the actual technical condition of the berth structure. This can lead to loads exceeding the residual strength of a structure and, as a result, to a berth failure
Summary
The adequacy of the methods for evaluating the reliability of a structure is known to be determined by reliability and accuracy of the models of loading, models of operation of materials, from which the elements of berth structures are made, and the models of occurrence of failures (accidents). It was predetermined by the desire to clarify the pre-existing procedures for calculating the indicators of reliability of berth facilities, which did not take into consideration the dynamic and stochastic nature of operational and environmental loads that influence the structural elements of berths and the soils that underlie berth facilities This created specific problems on evaluating the probability of exceeding some critical values by the selected type of a random process, which can lead to the partial or complete destruction of a structure. In some major seaports of the world, there has been a tendency over recent years to place too large amount of cargo in the rear zone of berths without taking into consideration the actual technical condition of the berth structure This can lead to loads exceeding the residual strength of a structure and, as a result, to a berth failure.
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