Development of a Fuzzy‐based Risk Assessment Model for Process Engineering

Abstract

Global interest in sustainable development has increased emphasis on the social, environmental, and economic impacts of products and processes. Ample evidence is available on the triple bottom line impacts of engineered systems creating ecological and social risks. Hence, the management of triple bottom line based risks should be a key consideration in operational management. The risk matrix has been commonly used to prioritize the risks associated with the prevention and remediation of environmental damage. Despite its popularity, however, data uncertainty is the main challenge associated with the risk matrix. The published literature identifies imprecision of risk level and absence of data as added challenges. A fuzzy logic (FL) based risk matrix model (RMM) has been developed to overcome the aforementioned challenge. The proposed RMM adopts a unique approach, integrating frequency of the risk consequence and impact of the corresponding consequence. The frequency of risk consequence is based on four factors: (i) the frequency of risk events, (ii) exposure to risk events, (iii) the probability of failure on demand (PFD) of the safeguards, and (iv) the vulnerability of safeguards. The consequence impacts involve the impact on humans, the environment, properties, and the reputation of the industry. To facilitate the computations of RMM, a Simulink-MATLAB model was developed and demonstrated by using a case study of a reboiler oven in the petroleum industry. The study revealed that the results of the new RMM can be more reliable than traditional risk matrices.