Development of a framework to evaluate human risk in a complex problem domain

Abstract

Although there are various techniques such as cost-benefit analysis that risk managers can use to place a monetary value on human life, these techniques have met with only varying levels of success even when applied to problems that have direct relationships among entities. Furthermore, these techniques have not enjoyed even this level of success when applied to problems that have ambiguous, uncertain and dynamic relationships among the entities. This paper proposes a three-phased framework that will attempt to guide decision makers beyond traditional thinking toward a more systemic (holistic) perspective to addressing human risk. The correct implementation of this emerging framework can help risk managers to: 1) better understand the nature of complex systems problems; 2) gain additional knowledge with which to assess human risks; 3) shift away from the traditional way of thinking and toward applying a holistic perspective based on systems theory in conjunction with systems thinking.