Development of a Dynamic Prediction Model for Underground Coal-Mining-Induced Ground Subsidence Based on the Hook Function

Abstract

Underground coal-mining-induced ground subsidence deformation is a common geological disaster impacting buildings, transportation and water supplies. Models predicting ground subsidence dynamically with high precision are important for the prevention of damage derived from ground subsidence. In this paper, the Hook function is utilized to develop a model describing the velocity of ground subsidence due to underground coal mining. Based on the subsidence velocity model, a dynamic subsidence model is established by taking an integral of the velocity model. Coefficients of the model, which depend on maximum subsidence, maximum subsidence velocity and the time corresponding to the maximum subsidence velocity, are related to the geological and mining conditions of the coal seam being investigated. A Levenberg–Marquardt-algorithm-based method is also proposed to calculate the optimal model coefficients based on subsidence velocity observations. Four continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations were constructed above a typical longwall coal mining working face in the Jining mining area, China. These GNSS stations collected subsidence observations over two years, which were used to validate the developed prediction model. The results show that the root-mean-square (RMS) of the model-predicted ground subsidence error is 56.1 mm, and the maximum relative error is 2.5% for all four GNSS stations, when the ground subsidence is less than 6000 mm.