Development of a disease recurrence risk predicting model in non-muscle invasive bladder urothelial carcinoma

Abstract

Objective To develop a nomogram which can accurately predict the disease recurrence risk after the transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) in patients with non-muscle invasive bladder urothelial carcinoma.Methods There were 317 patients in total with newly diagnosed non-muscle invasive bladder urothelial carcinoma from 1998 to 2007 enrolled in this study.The patient's gender,age,smoking history,drinking history,comorbidity of renal failure,time from diagnosis to operation,tumor size,tumor number,tumor grade,and intravesical therapy served as the predictors of the disease recurrence.Every prognosis factor were analyzed and screened through univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression statistical analysis,and the nomograms that could be used to predict the 3-year and 5-year recurrence probability after the surgery were developed.And the prediction accuracy of the nomogram had been internal validated and calibrated as well.Results Of the 317 patients,the three-year and five-year disease recurrence rates were 36.9％ (117/317) and 43.5％ (138/317),respectively.The patient's gender (RR=0.617,P=0.011),age (RR=1.369,P=0.088),tumor size (RR=1.474,P=0.030),tumor number (RR =1.663,P =0.002),tumor grade (RR =1.880,P =0.000),and comorbidity of renal failure (RR =3.646,P =0.000) had been proved to be the prognosis factors with significantly statistical difference.The predictive accuracy of the nomograms predicting the 3-year and 5-year disease recurrence after the surgery was 75.2％ and 68.3％,respectively.Conclusion The nomograms can provide individualized accurate risk estimations for patients,and therefore it can provide assured proof to formulate the individualizing treatment and follow-up protocol in clinic. Key words: Bladder neoplasms; Carcinoma; Prognosis; Nomogram