Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new method: a classification and regression tree (CART) based on easily accessible measures to predict mortality in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This was a prospective study of two independent prospective cohorts: a derivation cohort with 611 recruited patients and a validation cohort with 348 patients, all followed for 5 yrs. CART analysis was used to predict 5-yr mortality risk using the following covariates from the derivation cohort: age, % predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)), dyspnoea, physical activity, general health and number of hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations in the previous 2 yrs. Age (≥ 75 or <75 yrs) provided the first branch of the COPD-CART. The highest mortality risk (0.74) was seen in patients >75 yrs of age with higher levels of dyspnoea and FEV(1) <50% pred. Patients with the lowest risk of 5-yr mortality (0.04) were <55 yrs of age with FEV(1) >35% pred and one or no recent hospitalisations for COPD exacerbations. A simple decision tree that uses variables commonly gathered by physicians can provide a quick assessment of the severity of the disease, as measured by the risk of 5-yr mortality.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
