Abstract
The air cargo market is growing due to the spread of information technology (IT) products, the expansion of e-commerce, and high value-added products. Weather deterioration is one factor with a substantial impact on cargo transportation. If the arrival of cargo is delayed, supply chain delays occur. Because delays are directly linked to costs, companies need precise predictions of cargo transportation. This study develops a forecasting model to predict delay times and costs caused by the delayed arrival of cargo due to severe weather in the air cargo service environment. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is developed and analyzed to address delay reductions in cargo transportation. Necessary data are identified and collected using time series data provided by Incheon International Airport Corporation, with an emphasis on monthly data on cargo throughput at Incheon International Airport from January 2009 to December 2016. The model makes forecasts for further analysis. The model stands to provide decision makers with strategic and sustainable insights for cargo transportation planning and other similar applications.
Highlights
In the first decades of the 21st century, the air cargo market has grown rapidly due to the spread of information technology (IT) products, the expansion of e-commerce, and high value-added products
We developed a model to predict cargo demand in aviation operation services using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (SARIMA) model
We developed a model to derive delay times using the delay reduction model established by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory
Summary
In the first decades of the 21st century, the air cargo market has grown rapidly due to the spread of information technology (IT) products, the expansion of e-commerce, and high value-added products. Cargo exports in South Korea amounted to US $175 billion in 2017, an increase of 30.3% over the previous year. The industry recorded a high annual growth rate of 8.1% across a preceding period of five years. During that period of growth, wireless communication equipment and computers accounted for 70% of total cargo exports, mainly in semiconductors, and cargo exports of high value-added products such as pharmaceuticals and cosmetics increased significantly. Vietnam grew strongly, and China and Hong Kong topped the list. These three countries accounted for 64% of total cargo exports in South Korea during the period of observation [2,3,4]
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