Abstract
The paper reports the proposed method of quantitative analysis of risks in investment construction projects, which uses a probabilistic approach. The specific feature of this approach is a multistage evaluation process and complex accounting of indicators for decision making regarding the investment attractiveness of sites under conditions of uncertainty.Based on this approach, an automated computer model for evaluating investment attractiveness of construction projects was developed. The indicators of investment efficiency and risks for various options of construction project implementation were explored, the alternative for a project development was selected and the best investment project was determined with the use of the computer model.The reliability of the results was proved by studying the stability of decisions and by their errors.The results were obtained in order to improve the efficiency of managerial decisions in the sector of investment in construction sector of economy. The developed computer model makes it possible, based on statistical data of demand for residential real estate, to perform a quantitative analysis of risks of investment in construction projects, to make a choice of a construction project by profitability and risk indicators, as well as by the criteria of decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.Numerical experiments with a computer model showed the need to invest in additional research in order to clarify the environmental parameters and to invest in the construction of a multi-storey building.The obtained results are relevant due to a high degree of turbulence in the environment in the construction sector, as well as in connection with the importance of attracting investments from the position of competitiveness. The computer model developed in the process of research is universal regarding the type of a residential real estate construction object
Highlights
Today, the issues related to attracting a sufficient volume of capital are relevant, since this is a strategically important direction of further development of any country and one of the elements of the development of its economy
Analysis of methods and approaches regarding the assessment of investment projects in the field of construction revealed that there is no single approach to investment risk assessment, so there are unresolved issues related to creating an approach that would meet the requirements of any construction company
The aim of this study is to model the investment attractiveness of construction objects under conditions of uncertainty and risk, risk management processes for making the appropriate decision regarding an investment project and automation of determining the investment attractiveness
Summary
The issues related to attracting a sufficient volume of capital are relevant, since this is a strategically important direction of further development of any country and one of the elements of the development of its economy. The necessity of studies directed towards the development of a computer model of estimation of the investment attractiveness of construction under conditions of uncertainty and risk is caused by a high degree of dynamism and turbulence of the environment of investment and construction projects [4]. Considering these circumstances, the issues of attracting investments, assessing investment attractiveness and risks require universal approaches for their consideration and creation of effective managerial decisions in the field of construction investments. The use of the methods for computer simulation, decision making models under conditions of risk and uncertainty, as well as methods of statistical analysis is a necessary component of enhancing the scientific validity and effectiveness of relevant managerial solutions
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