Development of a clinical scoring model to predict the overall and relapse‑free survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following a hepatectomy.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly lethal disease, and surgical resection is one of the major treatment methods used. However, to date, at least to the best of our knowledge, there is no effective prognostic scoring system for the overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) of patients following hepatectomy. The present study developed a low-cost and easy-to-use model based on the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with HCC for assessment of outcome prediction and risk stratification. A total of 690 patients with HCC undergoing surgery were included and randomly divided into two cohorts (n=345). Cox regression analysis was conducted to investigate the association between the clinicopathological and treatment features, and patient survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that ascites, vascular tumor thrombus, low tumor differentiation and extrahepatic metastasis were independent risk factors for OS. Extrahepatic metastasis and multiple tumors were independent risk factors to predict tumor recurrence. These variables were weighted to construct the ascites, vascular tumor thrombus, low tumor differentiation, extrahepatic metastasis and multiple tumors (AVLEM) score based on the cumulative incidence (CuI) of the aforementioned variables, and the patients were classified into grade 0 (CuI=0), grade 1 (CuI=1 for OS and CuI ≥1 for RFS), and grade 2 (CuI ≥2) subgroups, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the OS and RFS differed significantly among the subgroups; however, the survival rate between the two cohorts did not exhibit any marked differences. On the whole, the present study demonstrates that with this AVLEM scoring system, patients with HCC with a high score had a poor OS and RFS; thus, it is suggested that such patients undergo imaging examinations following a hepatectomy more frequently.