Development of a clinical prediction score for congestive heart failure diagnosis in the emergency care setting: The Brest score

Abstract

ObjectiveTo derive and validate a clinical prediction rule of acute congestive heart failure obtainable in the emergency care setting. DesignDerivation of the score was performed on a retrospective 927 patients cohort admitted to our Emergency Department for dyspnea. The prediction model was externally validated on an independent 206-patient prospective cohort. Interventions and MeasuresDuring the derivation phase, variables associated with acute congestive heart failure were included in a multivariate regression model. Logistic regression coefficients were used to assign scoring points to each variable. During the validation phase, every diagnosis was confirmed by an independent adjudication committee. ResultsThe score comprised 11 variables: age ≥65 years (1 point), seizure dyspnea (2 points), night outbreak (1 point), orthopnea (1 point), history of pulmonary edema (2 points), chronic pulmonary disease (−2 points), myocardial infarction (1 point), crackles (2 points), leg edema (1 point), ST-segment abnormality (1 point), atrial fibrillation/flutter (1 point) on electrocardiography. In the validation step, 30 patients (14.6%) had a low clinical probability of acute congestive heart failure (score ≤3), of which only 2 (6.7%) had a proven acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema. The prevalence of acute congestive heart failure was 58.5% in the 94 patients with an intermediate probability (score of 4-8) and 91.5% in the 82 patients (39.8%) with a high probability (score ≥9). ConclusionThis score of acute congestive heart failure based on easily available and objective variables is entirely standardized. Applying the score to dyspneic adult emergency patients may enable a more rapid and efficient diagnostic process.