Development of a brief bedside tool to screen women sexual assault survivors for risk of persistent posttraumatic stress six months after sexual assault

Abstract

This study aims to develop and validate a brief bedside tool to screen women survivors presenting for emergency care following sexual assault for risk of persistent elevated posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) six months after assault. Participants were 547 cisgender women sexual assault survivors who presented to one of 13 sexual assault nurse examiner (SANE) programs for medical care within 72 h of a sexual assault and completed surveys one week and six months after the assault. Data on 222 potential predictors from the SANE visit and the week one survey spanning seven broadly-defined risk factor domains were candidates for inclusion in the screening tool. Elevated PTSS six months after assault were defined as PCL-5 > 38. LASSO logistic regression was applied to 20 randomly selected bootstrapped samples to evaluate variable importance. Logistic regression models comprised of the top 10, 20, and 30 candidate predictors were tested in 10 cross-validation samples drawn from 80% of the sample. The resulting instrument was validated in the remaining 20% of the sample. AUC of the finalized eight-item prediction tool was 0.77 and the Brier Score was 0.19. A raw score of 41 on the screener corresponds to a 70% risk of elevated PTSS at 6 months. Similar performance was observed for elevated PTSS at one year. This brief, eight-item risk stratification tool consists of easy-to-collect information and, if validated, may be useful for clinical trial enrichment and/or patient screening.