Development of a Behavior-Based Passenger Flow Assignment Model for Urban Rail Transit in Section Interruption Circumstance

Abstract

At present, the urban rail transit (URT) system has achieved network operation in many major cities of China. But, little attention has been given to the vulnerability of the URT system. The purpose of this study is to assign the passenger flow under the condition of section interruption in URT system. Two surveys (a passenger behavior survey and a stated preference survey) were conducted and a multinomial logit model was developed. The results show that although the first choice of passengers in emergency situation is to stay in URT system by a circuitous way, more than half of the respondents express interest in the temporary shuttle bus. For the temporary shuttle bus, the sensitivity analysis show that the relative speed is more important than crowding degree for passengers. The significant variables mostly fall in the personal attributes such as income, gender, age, etc. The impacts of trip feature factors are similar to the previous research in normal situations. These results provide basic support for passenger flow assignment at the shuttle bus level and reducing the risk of crowding at some special stations. Moreover, it is also good for reducing passenger delay and recovering the trip.