Development of a 30-Day Readmission Risk Calculator for the Inpatient Rehabilitation Setting.

Abstract

Readmission to acute care from the inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) setting is potentially preventable and an important target of quality improvement and cost savings. The objective of this study was to develop a risk calculator to predict 30-day all-cause readmissions from the IRF setting. Retrospective database analysis using the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation (UDSMR) from 2015 through2019. In total, 956 US inpatient rehabilitation facilities and 1,849,768 IRF discharges comprising patients from 14 impairment groups. Logistic regression models were developed to calculate risk-standardized 30-day all-cause hospital readmission rates for patients admitted to an IRF. Models for each impairment group were assessed using 12 common clinical and demographic variables and all but 4 models included various special variables. Models were assessed for discrimination (c-statistics), calibration (calibration plots), and internal validation (bootstrapping). A readmission risk scoring system was created for each impairment group population and was graphically validated. The mean age of the cohort was 68.7 (15.2) years, 50.7% were women, and 78.3% were Caucasian. Medicare was the primary payer for 73.1% of the study population. The final models for each impairment group included between 4 and 13 total predictor variables. Model c-statistics ranged from 0.65 to 0.70. There was good calibration represented for most models up to a readmission risk of 30%. Internal validation of the models using bootstrap samples revealed little bias. Point systems for determining risk of 30-day readmission were developed for each impairment group. Multivariable risk factor algorithms based upon administrative data were developed to assess 30-day readmission risk for patients admitted from IRF. This report represents the development of a readmission risk calculator for the IRF setting, which could be instrumental in identifying high risk populations for readmission and targeting resources towards a diverse group of IRF impairment groups.