Development of a 2-phases Sequential Modal Split Model for Inter - regional Inter-modal Trip in Korea

Abstract

Long distance trip has been increased and travel patterns are complicated due to diversity of transportation mode. Evolution of public transport which has made traveler more comfortable also contribute this phenomenon. So, prediction of transportation demand is becoming far more difficult and important than in the past. To impove the prediction of demand, this study suggests 2-phases modal split model that reflect characteristic of inter-regional inter-modal trip into main mode trip and access/egress trip. After that, each multi-nominal logit model is calibrated by trip characteristic. After that, optimum model is selected which is the highest model fitness and significant statistically. The result shows that generic variables and separation of time variables are suitable for both models. Model fitness of optimum model is over 0.2 and all variables are significant statistically. Traveler who takes main mode prefer auto to transit and who takes access/egress mode prefer transit to auto. The result of validation for value of time shows reasonable value comparing with standard guideline on KDI. Comparison with existing models also shows improved outcome of explanation. In conclusion, 2-phases model can explain and describe travel pattern better than existing models.