Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries

Anna Brdulak,Grażyna Chaberek,Jacek Jagodziński

doi:10.3390/en13164239

Abstract

Nearly two-thirds of the emissions that cause smog come from road transport. In April 2019, the European Parliament adopted new regulations on public procurement to encourage investment in clean buses—electric, hydrogen, or gas. Directive 2009/33/EC is to apply from the second half of 2021. The aim of this article is to make an attempt to simulate the number of zero-emission buses (ZEB) in European Union (EU) member countries in two time horizons: 2025 and 2030, and to forecast the number of clean vehicles in the precise time horizons, including before and after 2050. Research questions are as follows: (1) what will be the number of ZEBs in individual EU countries over the next few years; (2) which of the EU countries will reach by 2030 the level of 95% share of ZEBs in all buses, which are a fleet of public transport buses; and (3) in which year will which EU countries reach the level of 95% share of zero-emission buses. The method used is a Bass model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that, by 2050, only four of the EU members will be able to reach 95% level of share of clean buses in the city bus transport fleets. It is likely that other countries may not achieve this even by 2050.

Highlights

Owing to the significant importance of greenhouse gas emissions for climate change, in particular carbon dioxide, arising during the combustion of solid fuels in transport and the process of electricity, or, heat production, many countries have taken steps to consciously reduce harmful emissions [1].The European Union (EU) is a active entity in international relations, taking active measures to combat climate change
Resulting from the analysis, the following answers to research questions were proposed: A1 (Q1): According to the methodology, the analysis is feasible in four countries, that is, Spain, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Turkey
A2 (Q2): With this predicted number of clean buses, it seems that only Norway will be able to reach 95% level of zero-emission buses (ZEB) share in all buses possessed by this country

Summary

Introduction

Owing to the significant importance of greenhouse gas emissions for climate change, in particular carbon dioxide, arising during the combustion of solid fuels in transport and the process of electricity, or, heat production, many countries have taken steps to consciously reduce harmful emissions [1]. The European Union (EU) is a active entity in international relations, taking active measures to combat climate change. It aims to create a low-carbon economy in the long term. The main climate and energy goals have been set out in two documents: the climate and energy package until 2020 [2,3] and under the 2030 climate and energy policy. There are the main goals of the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth

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Conclusion