Development and validation of SUCROS-Cotton: a potential crop growth simulation model for cotton

Abstract

A model for the development, growth and potential production of cotton (SUCROS-Cotton) was developed. Particular attention was given to the phenological development of the plant and the plasticity of fruit growth in response to temperature, radiation, daylength, variety traits, and management. The model is characterized by a comparatively simple code and transparent algorithms. The model was parameterized for Chinese cotton varieties and validated with extensive independent datasets on cotton growth and production from the Yellow River region and Xinjiang Province. The model validation showed that the phenology, growth and yield were simulated satisfactorily. The root mean square error (RMSE) for date of emergence, date of flowering, date of open boll stage and duration from sowing to boll opening was less than four calendar days, both for cotton grown in monoculture and cotton grown in a relay intercropping system with wheat. The RMSE of predicted total dry matter compared with observations was at most 6.6%, of lint yield 6.6%, and for number of harvestable bolls 10.0%. SUCROS-Cotton provides a tool to (1) assess production opportunities of cotton in various ecological zones in response to temperature, incoming radiation and management, (2) identify optimal cotton ideotypes for different agro-ecological conditions and for guiding breeding efforts, and (3) explore resource-use-efficient cropping systems, including intercropping options, and crop management practices such as plastic film mulching and sowing date.