Development and validation of specific post-transplant risk scores according to the circulatory support status at transplant: A UNOS cohort analysis

Abstract

The clinical use of post-transplant risk scores is limited by their poor statistical performance. We hypothesized that developing specific prognostic models for each type of circulatory support at transplant may improve risk stratification. We analyzed the UNOS database including contemporary, first, non-combined heart transplantations (2013-2018). The endpoint was death or retransplantation during the first year post-transplant. Three different circulatory support statuses at transplant were considered: no support, durable mechanical support and temporary support (inotropes, temporary mechanical support). We generated 1,000 bootstrap samples that we randomly split into derivation and test sets. In each sample, we derived an overall model and 3 specific models (1 for each type of circulatory support) using Cox regressions, and compared, in the test set, their statistical performance for each type of circulatory support. A total of 13,729 patients were included; 1,220 patients (8.9%) met the composite endpoint. Circulatory support status at transplant was associated with important differences in baseline characteristics and distinct prognosis (p=0.01), interacted significantly with important predictive variables included in the overall model, and had a major impact on post-transplant predictive models (type of variables included and their corresponding hazard ratios). However, specific models suffered from poor discriminative performance and significantly improved risk stratification (discrimination, reclassification indices, calibration) compared to overall models in a very limited proportion of bootstrap samples (<15%). These results were consistent across several sensitivity analyzes. Circulatory support status at transplant reflected different disease states that influenced predictive models. However, developing specific models for each circulatory support status did not significantly improve risk stratification.