Development and validation of nomograms based on the SEER database for the risk factors and prognosis of distant metastasis in gastric signet ring cell carcinoma.

Abstract

Poor prognosis in patients with distant metastasis of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC), and there are few studies on the development and validation of the diagnosis and prognosis of distant metastasis of GSRC. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to identify patients with GSRC from 2004 to 2019. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors for distant metastasis of GSRC, while univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were used to determine independent prognostic factors for patients with distant metastasis of GSRC. Two nomograms were established, and model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. A total of 9703 cases with GSRC were enrolled, among which 2307 cases (23.78%) were diagnosed with distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis. Independent risk factors for distant metastasis included age, race, and T stage. Independent prognostic factors included T stage, chemotherapy, and surgery. The receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis curve, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the training set and validation set confirmed that the 2 nomograms could accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of distant metastasis in GSRC. Two nomograms can serve as effective prediction tools for predicting distant metastasis in GSRC patients and the prognosis of patients with distant metastasis. They have a certain clinical reference value.