Development and Validation of Data-Level Innovation Data-Balancing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Optimal Implantable Collamer Lens Size and Postoperative Vault.

Abstract

There are only four sizes of implantable collamer lens (ICL) available for selection, which cannot completely fit all patients as a result of the discontinuity of ICL sizes. Sizing an optimal ICL and predicting postoperative vault are still unresolved problems. This study aimed to develop and validate innovative data-level data-balancing machine learning-based models for predicting ICL size and postoperative vault. The patients were randomly assigned to training and internal validation sets in a 4:1 ratio. Feature selection was performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis feature importance methods. Traditional linear regression model and machine learning-based models were used. The accuracy of models was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and confusion matrix. A total of 564 patients (1127 eyes) were eligible for this study, consisting of 808 eyes in the training set, 202 eyes in the internal validation set, and 117 eyes in the external validation set. Compared with the traditional linear regression method, the machine learning model bagging tree showed the best performance for ICL size selection, with an accuracy of 84.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83.2-85.8%), and the AUC ranged from 0.88 to 0.99; the prediction accuracy of 12.1mm and 13.7mm ICL sizes was improved by 49% and 59%, respectively. The bagging tree model achieved the best accuracy [90.2%, (95%CI 88.9-91.5%)] for predicting the postoperative vault, and the AUC ranged from 0.90 to 0.94. The prediction accuracies of internal and external validation dataset for ICL sizing were 82.2% (95%CI 81.1-83.3%) and 82.1% (95%CI 81.1-83.1%), respectively. The innovative data-level data balancing-based machine learning model can be used to predict ICL size and postoperative vault more accurately, which can assist surgeons in choosing optimal ICL size, thus reducing risks of postoperative complications and secondary surgery.