Development and validation of artificial intelligence models for preoperative prediction of inferior mesenteric artery lymph nodes metastasis in left colon and rectal cancer

Abstract

BackgroundDissection of lymph nodes at the roots of the inferior mesenteric artery (IMAN) should be offered only to selected patients at a major risk of developing IMAN involvement. The aim of this study is to present the first artificial intelligence (AI) models to predict IMAN metastasis risk in the left colon and rectal cancer patients. MethodsA total of 2891 patients with descending colon including splenic flexure, sigmoid colon and rectal cancer undergoing major primary surgery and IMAN dissection were included as a study cohort, which was then split into a training set (67%) and a testing set (33%). Feature selection was conducted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model. Seven AI algorithms, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Light Gradient Boosting (LGB), Decision Tree Classifier (DTC), Random Forest (RF) classifier, and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), as well as traditional multivariate LR model were employed to construct predictive models. The optimal hyperparameters were determined with 5 fold cross-validation. The predictive performance of models and the expert surgeon was assessed and compared in the testing set independently. ResultsThe IMAN involvement incidence was 4.6%. The optimal set of features selected by LASSO included 10 characteristics: neoadjuvant treatment, age, synchronous liver metastasis, synchronous lung metastasis, signet ring adenocarcinoma, neural invasion, lymphovascular invasion, CA199, endoscopic obstruction, T stage evaluated by MRI. The most accurate model derived from MLP showed excellent prediction power with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.873 and produced 81.0% recognition sensitivity and 82.5% specificity in the testing set independently. In contrast, the judgment of IMAN metastasis by expert surgeon yield rather imprecise and unreliable results with a significantly lower AUROC of 0.509. Additionally, the proposed MLP had the highest net benefits and the largest reduction of unnecessary IMAN dissection without the cost of additional involved IMAN missed. ConclusionMLP model was able to maintain its prediction accuracy in the testing set better than other models and expert surgeons. Our MLP model could be used to help identify IMA nodal metastasis and to select candidates for individual IMAN dissection.