Abstract
BackgroundImmune and inflammatory dysfunction was reported to underpin critical COVID-19(coronavirus disease 2019). We aim to develop a machine learning model that enables accurate prediction of critical COVID-19 using immune-inflammatory features at admission.MethodsWe retrospectively collected 2076 consecutive COVID-19 patients with definite outcomes (discharge or death) between January 27, 2020 and March 30, 2020 from two hospitals in China. Critical illness was defined as admission to intensive care unit, receiving invasive ventilation, or death. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection. Five machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Neural Network (NN) were built in a training dataset, and assessed in an internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset.ResultsSix features (procalcitonin, [T + B + NK cell] count, interleukin 6, C reactive protein, interleukin 2 receptor, T-helper lymphocyte/T-suppressor lymphocyte) were finally used for model development. Five models displayed varying but all promising predictive performance. Notably, the ensemble model, SPMCIIP (severity prediction model for COVID-19 by immune-inflammatory parameters), derived from three contributive algorithms (SVM, GBDT, and NN) achieved the best performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.991 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.979–1.000) in internal validation cohort and 0.999 (95% CI 0.998–1.000) in external validation cohort to identify patients with critical COVID-19. SPMCIIP could accurately and expeditiously predict the occurrence of critical COVID-19 approximately 20 days in advance.ConclusionsThe developed online prediction model SPMCIIP is hopeful to facilitate intensive monitoring and early intervention of high risk of critical illness in COVID-19 patients.Trial registrationThis study was retrospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2000032161).Graphical abstracthelper lymphocytvevv
Highlights
Immune and inflammatory dysfunction was reported to underpin critical COVID-19(coronavirus disease 2019)
Early seroconversion and high antibody titer were linked with attenuated clinical symptoms [10]
The objective of this study is to develop and validate a machine learning model that accurately predicts the occurrence of critical illness in patients with COVID-19 based on immune-inflammatory parameters
Summary
Immune and inflammatory dysfunction was reported to underpin critical COVID-19(coronavirus disease 2019). Immune/inflammatory response of SARS-CoV-2 infection is believed to play an essential role in the progression of COVID-19, though not fully understood [4]. Inflammatory markers, such as C reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and ferritin, were markedly elevated in critically ill COVID-19 patients [5, 6]. Cytokines play an immunomodulating function, and uncontrolled cytokine storm is responsible for multiorgan dysfunction and poor outcomes of COVID-19 [7]. With both innate and adaptive immune compartments contribution, cytokine storm in COVID-19 is widely concerned [8, 9]. Early seroconversion and high antibody (serologic IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2) titer were linked with attenuated clinical symptoms [10]
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