Abstract
BackgroundThe rate of carcinoma upgrade for atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) diagnosed on core needle biopsy (CNB) is variable on open excision. The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the upgrade of ADH diagnosed with ultrasound (US)-guided core needle biopsy in patients with US-detected breast lesions.MethodsTwo retrospective sets, the training set (n = 401) and the validation set (n = 186), from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center between January 2014 and December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Clinicopathological and US features were selected using univariate and multivariable logistic regression, and the significant features were incorporated to build a nomogram model. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the training set and validation set.ResultsOf the 587 ADH biopsies, 67.7% (training set: 267/401, 66.6%; validation set: 128/186, 68.8%) were upgraded to cancers. In the multivariable analysis, the risk factors were age [odds ratio (OR) 2.739, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.525–5.672], mass palpation (OR 3.008, 95% CI: 1.624–5.672), calcifications on US (OR 4.752, 95% CI: 2.569–9.276), ADH extent (OR 3.150, 95% CI: 1.951–5.155), and suspected malignancy (OR 4.162, CI: 2.289–7.980). The model showed good discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.783 (95% CI: 0.736–0.831), and good calibration (p = 0.543). The application of the nomogram in the validation set still had good discrimination (AUC = 0.753, 95% CI: 0.666–0.841) and calibration (p = 0.565). Instead of surgical excision of all ADHs, if those categorized with the model to be at low risk for upgrade were surveillanced and the remainder were excised, then 63.7% (37/58) of surgeries of benign lesions could have been avoided and 78.1% (100/128) malignant lesions could be treated in time.ConclusionsThis study developed a simple-to-use nomogram by incorporating clinicopathological and US features with the overarching goal of predicting the probability of upgrade in women with ADH. The nomogram could be expected to decrease unnecessary surgery by nearly two-third and to identify most of the malignant lesions, helping guide clinical decision making with regard to surveillance versus surgical excision of ADH lesions.
Highlights
20% of the suspicious breast lesions diagnosed by core needle biopsy (CNB) demonstrate atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) [1]
The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the nomogram, and followed by calculation of the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy with 95% confidence intervals
We found that the upgrade was more associated with multifocal ADH than the focal one, which was consistent with previous studies [5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 26]
Summary
20% of the suspicious breast lesions diagnosed by core needle biopsy (CNB) demonstrate atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) [1]. Surveillance instead of surgical excision might be appropriate in patients with low risk of upgrade [4,5,6] This emphasizes the need to find approaches to identify those women who are more likely to have a cancer, which may contribute to the early detection of breast cancer. The rate of carcinoma upgrade for atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) diagnosed on core needle biopsy (CNB) is variable on open excision. The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the upgrade of ADH diagnosed with ultrasound (US)-guided core needle biopsy in patients with US-detected breast lesions
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