Development and validation of a simple risk score to predict 30-day readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention in a cohort of medicare patients.

Abstract

To develop a risk model that can be used to identify PCI patients at higher risk of readmission who may benefit from additional resources at the time of discharge. A high proportion of patients undergoing PCI are readmitted within 30 days of discharge. The sample comprised patients aged ≥65 years who underwent PCI at a CathPCI Registry®-participating hospital and could be linked with 100% Medicare fee-for-service claims between 01/2007 and 12/2009. The sample (n = 388,078) was randomly divided into risk score development (n = 193,899) and validation (n = 194,179) cohorts. We did not count as readmissions those associated with staged revascularization procedures. Multivariable logistic regression models using stepwise selection models were estimated to identify variables independently associated with all-cause 30-day readmission. The mean 30-day readmission rates for the development (11.36%) and validation (11.35%) cohorts were similar. In total, 19 variables were significantly associated with risk of 30-day readmission (P < 0.05), and model c-statistics were similar in the development (0.67) and validation (0.66) cohorts. The simple risk score based on 14 variables identified patients at high and low risk of readmission. Patients with a score of ≥13 (15.4% of sample) had more than an 18.5% risk of readmission, while patients with a score ≤6 (41.9% of sample) had less than an 8% risk of readmission. Among PCI patients, risk of readmission can be estimated using clinical factors present at the time of the procedure. This risk score may guide clinical decision-making and resource allocation for PCI patients at the time of hospital discharge. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.