Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Vietnamese.

Abstract

The prevalence of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) has progressively increased worldwide but there are few studies in Asian populations. This study aimed to develop and validate a scoring system to predict severe ALGIB in Vietnamese. Risk factors for severe ALGIB were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis using data from a retrospective cohort of 357 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital. These factors were weighted to develop the severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (SALGIB) score to predict severe ALGIB. The performance of SALGIB was validated in a prospective cohort of 324 patients admitted to 6 other hospitals using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. There were four factors at admission independently associated with severe ALGIB in the derivation cohort: heart rate ≥ 100/min, systolic blood pressure < 100mmHg, hematocrit < 35%, and platelets ≤ 150 × 103/µL. The SALGIB score determined severe ALGIB with AUC values of 0.91 and 0.86 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A SALGIB score < 2 associated with low risk of severe ALGIB in both cohorts (3.7% and 1.2%; respectively). The SALGIB score has good performance in discriminating risk of severe ALGIB in Vietnamese.