Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Cephamycin-Associated Hemorrhagic Events

Abstract

Cephamycin-associated hemorrhages have been reported since their launch. This research aimed to determine risk factors for cephamycin-associated hemorrhagic events and produce a risk scoring system using National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) database. Patients who were older than 20 years old and consecutively used study antibiotics for more than 48 hours (epidode) at NTUH between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2015 were included. The population was divided into two cohorts for evaluation of risk factors and validation of the scoring system. Multivariate logistic regression was used for the assessment of the adjusted association between factors and the outcome of interest. Results of the multivariate logistic regression were treated as the foundation to develop the risk scoring system. There were 46402 and 22681 episodes identified in 2009–2013 and 2014–2015 cohorts with 356 and 204 hemorrhagic events among respective cohorts. Use of cephamycins was associated with a higher risk for hemorrhagic outcomes (aOR 2.03, 95% CI 1.60–2.58). Other risk factors included chronic hepatic disease, at least 65 years old, prominent bleeding tendency, and bleeding history. A nine-score risk scoring system (AUROC = 0.8035, 95% CI 0.7794–0.8275; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test p = 0.1044) was developed based on the identified risk factors, with higher scores indicating higher risk for bleeding. Use of cephamycins was associated with more hemorrhagic events compared with commonly used penicillins and cephalosporins. The established scoring system, CHABB, may help pharmacists identify high-risk patients and provide recommendations according to the predictive risk, and eventually enhance the overall quality of care.