Development and validation of a risk prediction nomogram for serious arrhythmias in acute digoxin toxicity among pediatrics: A multicenter study

Abstract

Digoxin is a cardiac glycoside obtained from the leaves of the foxglove plant, Digitalis lanata. Several studies have described the safety of digoxin including various life-threatening events, notably cardiac arrhythmias. Early identification of high-risk patients and subsequent initiation of the utmost medical care are associated with a better prognosis. The assessment of serum digoxin levels, which is not always convenient, is the only tool used to evaluate the severity of digoxin exposure. However, the feasibility of this tool, particularly in resource-restricted countries, remains unclear. Therefore, the current study aimed to establish and validate a feasible alternative tool, a bedside nomogram, to identify pediatric patients diagnosed with acute digoxin intoxication who are at risk of developing serious arrhythmias. This was a two-phase, multicenter, retrospective study. The prevalence of serious arrhythmias was approximately 17%. Patients diagnosed with serious arrhythmias showed significantly higher serum digoxin, random blood glucose, and potassium levels but lower sodium, magnesium, and hemoglobin levels. Serious arrhythmias were associated with significantly lower P-R intervals, shorter QTc intervals, and more frequent digoxin effects (p < 0.05). The proposed nomogram showed that combining age and initial random blood glucose, sodium, and potassium levels could predict the future incidence of serious arrhythmia with an accuracy of 96.2% (sensitivity = 94.4%, specificity = 96.5%), an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.977, and p < 0.001. Validation of the proposed nomogram yielded an AUC for the nomogram probability of approximately 81%, and the AUC for the predicted probability using the developed model was 98.3%, indicating that both the validated model and the developed nomogram were significant predictors of serious arrhythmia. The utility of using the four-factor nomogram to determine the risk of serious arrhythmia in children exposed to an overdose of digoxin is comparable, if not superior, to the serum digoxin level.