Development and Validation of a Radiomics Model Based on Lymph-Node Regression Grading After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Abstract

The response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) varies among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), and the treatment response of lymph nodes (LNs) to nCRT is critical in implementing a watch-and-wait strategy. A robust predictive model may help personalize treatment plans to increase the chance that patients achieve a complete response. This study investigated whether radiomics features based on prenCRT magnetic resonance imaging nodes could predict treatment response in preoperative LARC LNs. The study included 78 patients with clinical stage T3-T4, N1-2, and M0 rectal adenocarcinoma who received long-course neoadjuvant radiotherapy before surgery. Pathologists evaluated 243 LNs, of which 173 and 70 were assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. For each LN, 3641 radiomics features were extracted from the region of interest in high-resolution T2WI magnetic resonance imaging before nCRT. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used for feature selection and radiomics signature building. A prediction model based on multivariate logistic analysis, combining radiomics signature and selected LN morphologic characteristics, was developed and visualized by drawing a nomogram. The model's performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration curves. The radiomics signature consists of 5 selected features that were effectively discriminated within the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.908; 95% CI, 0.857%-0.958%) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.865; 95% CI, 0.757%-0.973%). The nomogram, which consisted of radiomics signature and LN morphologic characteristics (short-axis diameter and border contours), showed better calibration and discrimination in the training and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.925; 95% CI, 0.880%-0.969% and AUC, 0.918; 95% CI, 0.854%-0.983%, respectively). The decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram had the highest clinical utility. The nodal-based radiomics model effectively predicts LNs treatment response in patients with LARC after nCRT, which could help personalize treatment plans and guide the implementation of the watch-and-wait approach in these patients.