Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the renal relapse of lupus nephritis

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the risk of relapse after complete remission (CR) and partial remission (PR), and to develop a prognostic nomogram predicting the probability in lupus nephritis (LN) patients. MethodsData from patients with LN who had been in remission were collected as a training cohort. The prognostic factors were analyzed using the univariable and multivariable Cox model for the training group. A nomogram was then developed using significant predictors in multivariable analysis. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 100 resamples. ResultsA total of 247 participants were enrolled, including 108 in the relapse group and 139 in the no relapse group. In multivariate Cox analysis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), complement 1q (C1q), and antiphospholipid (aPL), anti-Sm antibody were found to be significant for predicting relapse rates. The prognostic nomogram including the aforementioned factors effectively predicted 1- and 3-year probability of flare-free. Moreover, a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities was demonstrated using calibration curves. ConclusionsHigh SLEDAI, ESR, and positive aPL, anti-Sm antibody are potential risk factors for LN flare, while high C1q can reduce its recurrence. The visualized model we established can help predict the relapse risk of LN and aid clinical decision-making for individual patients.