Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for the risk of MAFLD in postmenopausal women.

Abstract

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has gradually become one of the main health concerns regarding liver diseases. Postmenopausal women represent a high-risk group for MAFLD; therefore, it is of great importance to identify and intervene with patients at risk at an early stage. This study established a predictive nomogram model of MAFLD in postmenopausal women and to enhance the clinical utility of the new model, the researchers limited variables to simple clinical and laboratory indicators that are readily obtainable. Data of 942 postmenopausal women from January 2023 to October 2023 were retrospectively collected and divided into two groups according to the collection time: the training group (676 cases) and the validation group (226 cases). Significant indicators independently related to MAFLD were identified through univariate logistic regression and stepwise regression, and the MAFLD prediction nomogram was established. The C-index and calibration curve were used to quantify the nomogram performance, and the model was evaluated by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Of 37 variables, 11 predictors were identified, including occupation (worker), body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, number of abortions, anxiety, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and diet (meat and processed meat). The C-index of the training group predicting the related risk factors was 0.827 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.860). The C-index of the validation group was 0.787 (95% CI 0.728-0.846). Calibration curves 1 and 2 (BS1000 times) were close to the diagonal, showing a good agreement between the predicted probability and the actual incidence in the two groups. The AUC of the training group was 0.827, the sensitivity was 0.784, and the specificity was 0.735. The AUC of the validation group was 0.787, the sensitivity was 0.674, and the specificity was 0.772. The DCA curve showed that the nomogram had a good net benefit in predicting MAFLD in postmenopausal women. A predictive nomogram for MAFLD in postmenopausal women was established and verified, which can assist clinicians in evaluating the risk of MAFLD at an early stage.