Development and validation of a prediction model to predict major adverse cardiovascular events in elderly patients undergoing noncardiac surgery: A retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background and aimsCurrent existing predictive tools have limitations in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in elderly patients. We will build a new prediction model to predict MACEs in elderly patients undergoing noncardiac surgery by using traditional statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. MethodsMACEs were defined as acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischemic stroke, heart failure and death within 30 days after surgery. Clinical data from 45,102 elderly patients (≥65 years old), who underwent noncardiac surgery from two independent cohorts, were used to develop and validate the prediction models. A traditional logistic regression and five machine learning models (decision tree, random forest, LGBM, AdaBoost, and XGBoost) were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In the traditional prediction model, the calibration was assessed using the calibration curve and the patients’ net benefit was measured by decision curve analysis (DCA). ResultsAmong 45,102 elderly patients, 346 (0.76%) developed MACEs. The AUC of this traditional model was 0.800 (95% CI, 0.708–0.831) in the internal validation set, and 0.768 (95% CI, 0.702–0.835) in the external validation set. In the best machine learning prediction model-AdaBoost model, the AUC in the internal and external validation set was 0.778 and 0.732, respectively. Besides, for the traditional prediction model, the calibration curve of model performance accurately predicted the risk of MACEs (Hosmer and Lemeshow, p = 0.573), the DCA results showed that the nomogram had a high net benefit for predicting postoperative MACEs. ConclusionsThis prediction model based on the traditional method could accurately predict the risk of MACEs after noncardiac surgery in elderly patients.