Development and validation of a novel score to predict brain death after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Abstract

Background and objectivesBrain death (BD) occurs in 9–24% of successfully resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA). To predict BD after OHCA, we developed a novel brain death risk (BDR) score. MethodsWe identified independent predictors of BD after OHCA in a retrospective, single academic center cohort between 2011 and 2021. The BDR score ranges from 0 to 7 points and includes: non-shockable rhythm (1 point), drug overdose as etiology of arrest (1 point), evidence of grey-white differentiation loss or sulcal effacement on head computed tomography (CT) radiology report within 24 hours of arrest (2 points), Full-Outline-Of-UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score of 0 (2 points), FOUR score 1–5 (1 point), and age <45 years (1 point). We internally validated the BDR score using k-fold cross validation (k = 8) and externally validated the score at an independent academic center. The main outcome was BD. ResultsThe development cohort included 362OHCA patients, of whom 18% (N = 58) experienced BD. Internal validation provided an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC) (95% CI) of 0.931 (0.905–0.957). In the validation cohort, 19.8% (N = 17) experienced BD. The AUC (95% CI) was 0.849 (0.765–0.933). In both cohorts, a BDR score >4 was the optimal cut off (sensitivity 0.903 and 0.882, specificity 0.830 and 0.652, in the development and validation cohorts respectively). DiscussionThe BDR score identifies those at highest risk for BD after OHCA. Our data suggest that a BDR score >4 is the optimal cut off.