Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram for advanced diffuse large B cell lymphoma

Abstract

Advanced diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a common malignant tumor with aggressive clinical features and poor prognosis. At present, there is lack of effective prognostic tool for patients with advanced (stage III/IV) DLBCL. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic indicators that affect survival and response and establish the first survival prediction nomogram for advanced DLBCL. A total of 402 patients with advanced DLBCL were enrolled in this study. COX multivariate analysis was used to obtain independent prognostic factors. The independent prognostic factors were included in the nomogram, and the nomogram to predict the performance of the model was established by R rms package, C-index (consistency index), AUC curve and calibration curve. The training and validation cohorts included 281 and 121 patients. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis showed that Ki-67 (70% (high expression) vs ≤ 70% (low expression), p < 0.001), LDH (lactate dehydrogenase) (elevated vs normal, p = 0.05), FER (ferritin) (elevated vs normal, p < 0.001), and β2-microglobulin (elevated vs normal, p < 0.001) were independent predictors and the nomogram was constructed. The nomogram showed that there was a significant difference in OS among the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, with 5-year survival rates of 81.6%, 44% and 6%, respectively. The C-index of the nomogram in the training group was 0.76. The internal validation of the training group showed good consistency. In the internal validation cohort of the training group, the AUC was 0.828, and similar results were obtained in the validation group, with a C-index of 0.74 and an AUC of 0.803. The proposed nomogram provided a valuable individualized risk assessment of OS in advanced DLBCL patients.