Development and Validation of a Novel Machine Learning Model to Predict the Survival of Patients with Gastrointestinal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Abstract

Introduction: Well-calibrated models for personalized prognostication of patients with gastrointestinal neuroendocrine neoplasms (GINENs) are limited. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine-learning model to predict the survival of patients with GINENs. Methods: Oblique random survival forest (ORSF) model, Cox proportional hazard risk model, Cox model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization, CoxBoost, Survival Gradient Boosting Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting survival regression, DeepHit, DeepSurv, DNNSurv, logistic-hazard model, and PC-hazard model were compared. We further tuned hyperparameters and selected variables for the best-performing ORSF. Then, the final ORSF model was validated. Results: A total of 43,444 patients with GINENs were included. The median (interquartile range) survival time was 53 (19–102) months. The ORSF model performed best, in which age, histology, M stage, tumor size, primary tumor site, sex, tumor number, surgery, lymph nodes removed, N stage, race, and grade were ranked as important variables. However, chemotherapy and radiotherapy were not necessary for the ORSF model. The ORSF model had an overall C index of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.85–0.87). The area under the receiver operation curves at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.91, 0.89, 0.87, and 0.80, respectively. The decision curve analysis showed superior clinical usefulness of the ORSF model than the American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage. A nomogram and an online tool were given. Conclusion: The machine learning ORSF model could precisely predict the survival of patients with GINENs, with the ability to identify patients at high risk for death and probably guide clinical practice.