Abstract
BackgroundRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common renal malignant tumor in elderly patients. The prognosis of renal cell carcinoma with distant metastasis is poor. We aim to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC to help doctors and patients with early intervention and improve the survival rate.MethodsThe clinicopathological information of patients was downloaded from SEER to identify all elderly patients with RCC over 65 years old from 2010 to 2018. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyzed the training cohort's independent risk factors for distant metastasis. A nomogram was established to predict the distant metastasis of elderly patients with RCC based on these risk factors. We used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical application value of the model.ResultsA total of 36,365 elderly patients with RCC were included in the study. They were randomly divided into the training cohort (N = 25,321) and the validation cohort (N = 11,044). In the training cohort, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that race, tumor histological type, histological grade, T stage, N stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for distant metastasis elderly patients with RCC. A nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC. The training and validation cohort's C-indexes are 0.949 and 0.954, respectively, indicating that the nomogram has excellent accuracy. AUC of the training and validation cohorts indicated excellent predictive ability. DCA suggested that the nomogram had a better clinical application value than the traditional TN staging.ConclusionThis study constructed a new nomogram to predict the risk of distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC. The nomogram has excellent accuracy and reliability, which can help doctors and patients actively monitor and follow up patients to prevent distant metastasis of tumors.
Highlights
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common renal malignant tumor in elderly patients
The results showed that race, tumor histological type, histological grade, T stage, N stage, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC (Table 2)
This study explored the risk factors for distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC
Summary
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common renal malignant tumor in elderly patients. The prognosis of renal cell carcinoma with distant metastasis is poor. We aim to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of distant metastasis in elderly patients with RCC to help doctors and patients with early intervention and improve the survival rate. Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common renal malignant tumor in adults, accounting for about 3% of all human tumors [1], with more than 400,000 newly diagnosed patients each year [2]. The proportion of elderly patients over 65 years old in RCC is more than 70% [3]. Tumor metastasis is the critical factor to determine the prognosis of RCC patients. 33% of patients have recurrence and metastasis after surgical excision of the tumor, and it is unclear which patients are prone to metastasis [7]
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