Abstract
Hypertension is a highly prevalent disorder. A nomogram to estimate the risk of hypertension in Chinese individuals is not available. 6201 subjects were enrolled in the study and randomly divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 2:1. The LASSO regression technique was used to select the optimal predictive features, and multivariate logistic regression to construct the nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed and validated by AUC, C-index, calibration curves, DCA, clinical impact curves, NRI, and IDI. The nomogram140/90 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, BMI, MCHC, MPV, TBIL, and TG. AUCs of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. The nomogram130/80 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, RDWSD, and TBIL. AUCs of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. Both nomograms demonstrated favorable clinical consistency. NRI and IDI showed that the nomogram140/90 exhibited superior performance than the nomogram130/80. Therefore, the web-based calculator of nomogram140/90 was built online. We have constructed a nomogram that can be effectively used in the preliminary and in-depth risk prediction of hypertension in a Chinese population based on a 10-year retrospective cohort study. This study was supported by the Hebei Science and Technology Department Program (no. H2018206110).
Highlights
Systemic arterial hypertension is the most common risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and the biggest contributor to world mortality from noncommunicable diseases (Mills et al, 2020; Burnier and Egan, 2019)
There were no significant differences in the characteristics of hypertension status in 2019, gender, family history of hypertension, smoking status, drinking status, age, systolicblood pressure (SBP), diastolicblood pressure (DBP), height, weight, body mass index (BMI), white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocyte count (LYMPH), neutrophil count (NEUT), lymphocyte percentage (LYMPHP), neutrophil percentage (NEUTP), red blood cell count (RBC), hemoglobin (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width-coefficient of variation (RDWCV), red blood cell distribution width standard deviation (RDWSD), platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV), plateletcrit (PCT), platelet distribution
The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, BMI, MCHC, MPV, total protein (TP), total bilirubin (TBIL), and TG were 0.554, Table 2
Summary
Systemic arterial hypertension (hereafter referred to as hypertension) is the most common risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and the biggest contributor to world mortality from noncommunicable diseases (Mills et al, 2020; Burnier and Egan, 2019). In China, high systolicblood pressure (SBP) is the leading risk factor for both number of deaths and percentage of disability-a djusted life-y ears, which accounted for 2.54 million deaths in 2017 (Zhou et al, 2019). Results: The nomogram140/90 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, BMI, MCHC, MPV, TBIL, and TG. C-index of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. Conclusions: We have constructed a nomogram that can be effectively used in the preliminary and in-depth risk prediction of hypertension in a Chinese population based on a 10-year retrospective cohort study.
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