Development and validation of a nomogram integrating marital status for 5-year overall survival of chondrosarcoma: a population-based study.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of marital status on overall survival (OS) and develop a nomogram for predicting 5-year OS in chondrosarcoma (CHS) patients. We utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify CHS patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2018. Survival rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Prognostic factors were identified through univariate and multivariate analyses. An independent cohort was used for external validation of the nomogram. Performance evaluation of the nomogram was conducted using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In the SEER cohort, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant differences in OS among CHS patients with different marital statuses (P < 0.001), with widowed patients having the lowest OS. In terms of gender, there were significant survival differences based on marital status in females (P < 0.001), but not in males (P = 0.067). The OS of married and single females is significantly higher than that of married (P < 0.001) and single male (P = 0.006), respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves showed no significant difference in OS between groups stratified by either gender or marital status in the external cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed that age at diagnosis, gender, marital status, tumor size, histological type, tumor grade, SEER stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for OS. The nomogram demonstrated high internal and external validation C-indexes of 0.818 and 0.88, respectively. Calibration plots, DCA curve, and Kaplan-Meier curve (P < 0.001) confirmed the excellent performance and clinical utility of the nomogram. Marital status was an independent factor influencing OS in CHS patients, with widowed patients having the worst prognosis. The OS of both married and single females is significantly higher than that of their male counterparts. However, these findings require further validation in a large independent cohort. While the contribution of marital status on predicting OS appears modest, our nomogram accurately predicted 5-year OS and identified high-risk groups, providing a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.