Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival to Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Abstract

This study aims to develop and validate a effective prognostic nomogram for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Retrospective analysis of 503 patients with LA-ESCC given CCRT in our hospital from 2009 to 2016 was conducted. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 335), and one-third were assigned to the validation set (n = 168). In order to generate the nomogram, multivariate cox regression analysis was undertaken in the training set for uncovering significant prognostic variables for overall survival. The C-index and calibration plot were used to verify nomogram discrimination and calibration, respectively. Five independent prognostic variables were found and incorporated into a nomogram: age, N stage, location, tumor response, and MLR (monocyte/lymphocyte ratio). The C-indexes of the training set and the validation set were 0.730 and 0.745, respectively. The discrimination and calibration of this nomogram showed good predictive power in both sets. Conclusively, the proposed nomogram may be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of LA-ESCC patients receiving CCRT.