Abstract
Regional citrate anticoagulation-continuous renal replacement therapy (RCA-CRRT) has a wide range of applications in clinical practice, but unplanned downtime due to RCA-CRRT circuit coagulation is as high as 15.75%-66.70%. To build a nomogram model for predicting the lifespan circuits of RCA-CRRT. A prospective observational cohort study was conducted in Sichuan, China. The collected clinical data from 404 RCA-CRRT sessions involving 135 patients were utilized. The patients' basic information, laboratory indicators and RCA-CRRT parameters were used as independent variables, and the survival status and survival time of RCA-CRRT circuits were used as dependent variables. A Cox multivariate analysis was performed to build the nomogram model for predicting the lifespan of RCA-CRRT circuits. The model was validated internally and externally. The median lifespan of RCA-CRRT circuits was 28.0 (12.0-46.5) h, and the unplanned downtime rate was 23.76%. In the Cox multivariate analysis, venous pressure, haemoglobin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), lactate, and blood transfusion were identified as statistically significant predictive factors for the lifespan of RCA-CRRT circuits (p < .05). Subsequently, a nomogram model for predicting the lifespan of RCA-CRRT circuits was developed. The AUC values for internal and external validation within the 12-72-h timeframe ranged from 0.648 to 0.816 and 0.613 to 0.956, respectively. Both the calibration curve and clinical decision curve demonstrated the model's good performance. The nomogram model developed in this study demonstrates its efficacy in accurately predicting the lifespan circuits of RCA-CRRT. Clinical nurses can use the prediction model to assess the lifespan of RCA-CRRT circuits, so as to formulate a personalized RCA-CRRT treatment plan for patients, thus reducing the unplanned downtime of RCA-CRRT.
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