Development and validation of a new equation based on plasma creatinine and muscle mass assessed by CT scan to estimate glomerular filtration rate: a cross-sectional study.

Abstract

Inter-individual variations of non-glomerular filtration rate (GFR) determinants of serum creatinine, such as muscle mass, account for the imperfect performance of estimated GFR (eGFR) equations. We aimed to develop an equation based on creatinine and total lumbar muscle cross-sectional area measured by unenhanced computed tomography scan at the third lumbar vertebra. The muscle mass-based eGFR (MMB-eGFR) equation was developed in 118 kidney donor candidates (iohexol clearance) using linear regression. Validation cohorts included 114 healthy subjects from another center (51Cr-EDTA clearance, validation population 1), 55 patients with chronic diseases (iohexol, validation population 2), and 60 patients with highly discordant creatinine and cystatin C-based eGFR, thus presumed to have atypical non-GFR determinants of creatinine (51Cr-EDTA, validation population 3). Mean bias was the mean difference between eGFR and measured GFR, precision the standard deviation (SD) of the bias, and accuracy the percentage of eGFR values falling within 20% and 30% of measured GFR. In validation population 1, performance of MMB-eGFR was not different from those of CKD-EPICr2009 and CKD-EPICr2021. In validation population 2, MMB-eGFR was unbiased and displayed better precision than CKD-EPICr2009, CKD-EPICr2021 and EKFC (SD of the biases: 13.1vs 16.5, 16.8 and 15.9mL/min/1.73 m2). In validation population 3, MMB-eGFR had better precision and accuracy {accuracy within 30%: 75.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 64.0-86.0] vs 51.5% (95% CI 39.0-64.3) for CKD-EPICr2009, 43.3% (95% CI 31.0-55.9) for CKD-EPICr2021, and 53.3% (95% CI 40.7-66.0) for EKFC}. Difference in bias between Black and white subjects was -2.1mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI -7.2 to 3.0), vs -8.4mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI -13.2 to -3.6) for CKD-EPICr2021. MMB-eGFR displayed better performances than equations based on demographics, and could be applied to subjects of various ethnic backgrounds.