Development and validation of a high-resolution hydrodynamic model for Polish Marine Areas

Abstract

This study presents the development and validation of a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model, CEMBS-PolSea, designed to resolve submesoscale features in Polish Marine Areas. The model, derived from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), employs a horizontal resolution of 575 m and 66 vertical layers. It incorporates advanced parameterizations for horizontal and vertical mixing processes, and integrates meteorological and river inflow data. A novel satellite data assimilation module was implemented to enhance model accuracy. The model was calibrated and validated using in situ measurements from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) database and satellite observations over the period 2019-2023. Results demonstrate strong agreement between model outputs and observational data, particularly for surface temperature (Pearson's r = 0.95) and salinity (r = 0.89). The model successfully captures temporal and spatial variations in temperature and salinity profiles, with some discrepancies noted in deeper layers. The integration of satellite data assimilation significantly improved model performance, particularly in surface temperature predictions. This high-resolution model represents a significant advancement in simulating complex coastal dynamics and submesoscale features in the Polish Marine Areas, offering a valuable tool for marine ecosystem management and climate change impact studies in the region.