Development and Validation of a Fusion Model Based on Carotid Plaques and White Matter Lesion Burden Imaging Characteristics to Evaluate Ischemic Stroke Severity in Symptomatic Patients.

Abstract

The diagnostic value of carotid plaque characteristics based on higher-resolution vessel wall MRI (HRVW-MRI) combined with white matter lesion (WML) burden for the risk of ischemic stroke is unclear. To combine carotid plaque features and WML burden to construct a hybrid model for evaluating ischemic stroke severity and prognosis in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Retrospective. One hundred and ninty-three patients with least one confirmed carotid atherosclerotic stenosis ≥30% and cerebrovascular symptoms within the last 2 weeks (136 in the training cohort and 57 in the test cohort). 3.0T, T2-weighted fluid attenuated inversion recovery (T2-FLAIR) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI); HRVW-MRI: 3D T1-weighted variable flip angle fast spin-echo sequences (VISTA), T2-weighted VISTA, simultaneous noncontrast angiography and intraplaque hemorrhage (SNAP), and contrast-enhanced T1-VISTA. The following features of the plaques or vessel wall were assessed by three MRI readers independently: calcification (CA), intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC), ulceration, plaque enhancement (PE), maximum vessel diameter (Max VD), maximum wall thickness (Max WT), total vessel area (TVA), lumen area (LA), plaque volume, and lumen stenosis. WMLs were graded visually and categorized as absent-to-mild WMLs (Fazekas score 0-2) or moderate-severe WMLs (Fazekas score 3-6). WML volumes were quantified using a semiautomated volumetric analysis program. Modified Rankin scores (mRS) were assessed at 90 days, following an outpatient interview, or by telephone. LASSO-logistic regression analysis was performed to construct a model. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, calibration curves, decision curve analyses, and clinical imaging curves. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to explore the associations between the hybrid model-derived score and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days. The model was constructed using five selected features, including IPH, plaque enhancement, ulceration, NWI, and total Fazekas score in deep WMLs (DWMLs). The hybrid model yielded an area under the curve of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.97) in the training cohort and 0.88 (0.80-0.96) in the test cohort. Furthermore, the hybrid model-derived score (odds ratio = 1.28; 95% CI 1.06-1.53) was independently associated with the mRS score 90 days after stroke. The hybrid model constructed using MRI plaque characteristics and WML burden has potential to be an effective noninvasive method of assessing ischemic stroke severity. The model-derived score has promising utility in judging neurological function recovery. Stage 2.