Abstract
Most delirium risk prediction models are cumbersome to use, time consuming to complete, and require education ensure accuracy. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model using routinely assessed risk factors predictive of delirium including: cognitive impairment, ≥80-years old, functional dependence, sensory impairment, and chronic substance use. This retrospective study included 7999 encounters of hospitalized patients aged 65-years or older admitted from 1/1/2019 to 12/31/2019. Various models were compared, with the best tested for validation. A model, where cognitive impairment was worth 2-points and a threshold of 3-points to predict delirium, was determined to be the best model and was validated with an area-under Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curve=0.7126. Management of delirium could be enhanced by integrating a nursing admission delirium risk screening process into the workflow, triggering initiation of prevention interventions and prompt assessment for signs and symptoms of delirium for those at high risk.
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