Development and validation of a CT-based nomogram to predict spread through air space (STAS) in peripheral stage IA lung adenocarcinoma.

Abstract

To develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram based on preoperative CT to predict spread through air space (STAS) status of stage IA lung adenocarcinoma (ADC). In this retrospective study, 434 patients with pathological proven periphery stage IA lung adenocarcinoma were included, which consisted of 349 patients from center I for training group and 85 patients from Center II for test group. STAS was identified in 53 patients (40 patient in the training group and 13 patients in the test group). On the basis of preoperative CT images, 19 morphological characteristics were analyzed. Univariable analysis was used to explore the association between clinical and CT characteristics and STAS status in the training group (P < 0.002). Independent risk factors for STAS were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and then used to build a nomogram for preoperative predicting STAS status. Type of nodules, diameter of solid component, lobulation and percentage of the solid component (PSC) were associated with STAS status of peripheral stage IA lung ADCs statistical significantly. Multivariate logistics regression analysis revealed that PSC and lobulation were independent risk factors for STAS. The nomogram based on these factors achieved good predictive performance for STAS with a C-index of 0.803 in the training group and a well-fitted calibration curve. Using a cut-off value which was obtained from Youden index of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a diagnosis accuracy of 70.6% was obtained in the test group with sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction value (PPV) and negative prediction value (NPV) of 92.3%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 98.0%, respectively. The nomogram based on preoperative CT images could achieve good predictive performance for STAS status of lung adenocarcinomas. This simple-to-used model can facilitate surgeons for a rational operation pattern choice at bedside.