Development and validation of a clinical prediction-score model for distant metastases in major salivary gland carcinoma

Abstract

The most common pattern of failure in major salivary gland carcinoma (SGC) is development of distant metastases (DMs). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction score for DM in SGC. Patients with SGC treated curatively at four tertiary cancer centers were divided into discovery (n= 619) and validation cohorts (n= 416). Multivariable analysis using competing risk regression was used to identify predictors of DM in the discovery cohort and create a prediction score of DM; the optimal score cut-off was determined using a minimal P value approach. The prediction score was subsequently evaluated in the validation cohort. The cumulative incidence and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to analyze DM and overall survival (OS), respectively. In the discovery cohort, DM predictors (risk coefficient) were: positive margin (0.6), pT3-4 (0.7), pN+ (0.7), lymphovascular invasion (0.8), and high-risk histology (1.2). High DM-risk SGC was defined by sum of coefficients greater than two. In the discovery cohort, the 5-year incidence of DM for high- versus low-risk SGC was 50% versus 8% (P < 0.01); this was similar in the validation cohort (44% versus 4%; P < 0.01). In the pooled cohorts, this model performed similarly in predicting distant-only failure (40% versus 6%, P < 0.01) and late (>2 years post surgery) DM (22% versus 4%; P < 0.01). Patients with high-risk SGC had an increased incidence of DM in the subgroup receiving postoperative radiation therapy (46% versus 8%; P < 0.01). The 5-year OS for high- versus low-risk SGC was 48% versus 92% (P < 0.01). This validated prediction-score model may be used to identify SGC patients at increased risk for DM and select those who may benefit from prospective evaluation of treatment intensification and/or surveillance strategies.