Development and scenario experiments with the new model of rapid bioresources crisis under expert control

Abstract

This paper continues a series of studies dedicated to the analysis of the nonlinear dynamics of complex environmental processes through the use of computational methods. The construction of a computational structure that uses the forms of the hybrid time and the logic of redefined behavior of solutions of the special system of equations to describe important nonlinear phenomena in the man-agement of unstable biosystems is considered in the article. The difference between the described ap-proaches to building a model is that computational experiments based on differential equations and re-defined according to the rules simulate scenarios in the dynamics of controlled biological resources of different types. The form of time allows to operate on a discrete component of the trajectory to describe changes that are visible to experts from the monitoring statistics or from reports from the fishery. The computational structure logically corresponds to the life cycle of large marine fish. Continuous characteristics are used to manage changes in the life cycle model. The new models are intended to de-scribe in scenarios the phenomena of rapid degradation of valuable biological resources with a very small error in the regulation of the rate of removal from the stock. These models have shown that the tradi-tional methods of bioresources management by experts have fundamental shortcomings and problems. Experts overestimate the amount of stocks for commercial removal from the population. Regulation by setting quotas on fish catch does not prevent the fishery from collapsing. The approach is applicable for mathematical predicting of the rapidly inflowing phases of an ecological invasion in aquatic systems.