Development and psychometric assessment of the test “Predictive style”

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Prognostic processes are an important link in adaptation to stressful events and resilience. The role of the features of prognostic abilities in various mental disorders is shown. We introduce and substantiate a new psychological construct, the “Predictive style”, reflecting the subjective importance of the forecasting process and the tendency to assess the favorability of predicted events. AIM: To develop and conduct a psychometric assessment of the “Predictive style” test. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A “Predictive style” test was developed, including 21 statements divided into 4 scales: excessive optimism, excessive pessimism, excessive forecasting and indifference to forecasts. The development of the test included the study of the external and internal validity, as well as the reliability of the methodology. RESULTS: The measures of compliance with the test model were at a sufficient level: CFI=0.927; TLI=0.917; SRMR=0.0538; RMSEA=0.0497 (95% CI 0.0403–0.0589) and were performed on a new sample. All items correlated with their scales at a sufficient level. The reliability of the scales was in an acceptable range: Kronbach α=0.851–0.630. Retest reliability was confirmed after 2 months. Convergent validity was demonstrated by correlations with levels of optimism, pessimism, anticipation, predictive ability and coping strategies. Statistically significant differences were found between the groups of patients with neurotic mental disorders and those without psychopathology. Multiple linear regression demonstrated that the test scales were statistically significant predictors of anxiety and depression symptoms in the study participants. The results obtained confirm the criteria validity of the test under development. CONCLUSION: The developed test has sufficient psychometric indicators and can be used in subsequent studies.