Development and performance assessment of a new opensource Bayesian inference R platform for building energy model calibration

Abstract

Many factors contribute to the inherent uncertainty of energy consumption modeling in buildings. It is essential to perform a calibration and sensitivity analysis in order to manage these uncertainties. Despite the availability of several calibration methods, they are often deterministic and lack quantified uncertainties. Moreover, the selection of parameters in building energy modeling for calibration depends on the user’s experience. Therefore, a more rigorous selection process is required. This study developed a new automated Bayesian Inference calibration platform running as an R package. A sensitivity analysis module and a Bayesian inference module determine the calibration parameters and uncertainties, respectively. The Meta-model module is developed to replace the building energy model for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo process to save computing time. The proposed platform is successfully demonstrated on a synthetic high-rise office building and a real high-rise residential building in a hot and arid climate. The relationship between the number of calibration parameters, calibration performance, and the accuracy of the Meta-model is further discussed. The developed calibration platform in this study proved to have clear advantages over the existing platforms, with the ability to reasonably estimate building energy performance in a short computing time.