Abstract
BackgroundThe incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising. While several risk factors have been associated with the development of knee OA, this information is not readily accessible to those at risk for osteoarthritis. Risk calculators have been developed for several prevalent chronic conditions but not for OA. Using published evidence on established risk factors, we developed an interactive, personalized knee OA risk calculator (OA Risk C) and conducted a pilot study to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility.MethodsWe used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated, state-transition simulation of the natural history and management of OA, to generate data for OA Risk C. Risk estimates for calculator users were based on a set of demographic and clinical factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, obesity) and select risk factors (family history of knee OA, occupational exposure, and history of knee injury). OA Risk C presents personalized risk of knee OA in several ways to maximize understanding among a wide range of users. We conducted a study of 45 subjects in a primary care setting to establish the feasibility and acceptability of the OA risk calculator. Pilot study participants were asked several questions regarding ease of use, clarity of presentation, and clarity of the graphical representation of their risk. These questions used a five-level agreement scale ranging from strongly disagree to strongly agree.ResultsOA Risk C depicts information about users’ risk of symptomatic knee OA in 5 year intervals. Study participants estimated their lifetime risk at 38 %, while their actual lifetime risk, as estimated by OA Risk C, was 25 %. Eighty-four percent of pilot study participants reported that OA Risk C was easy to understand, and 89 % agreed that the graphs depicting their risk were clear and comprehensible.ConclusionsWe have developed a personalized, computer-based OA risk calculator that is easy to use. OA Risk C may be utilized to estimate individuals’ knee OA risk and to deliver educational and behavioral interventions focused on osteoarthritis risk reduction.
Highlights
The incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising
Risk calculator development and derivation of OA risk We used data generated by the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model to create a computer-based risk calculator for knee OA (OA Risk C)
We have developed an Osteoarthritis Risk Calculator and assessed its ease of use and feasibility in a primary care setting
Summary
The incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising. While several risk factors have been associated with the development of knee OA, this information is not readily accessible to those at risk for osteoarthritis. Female sex, obesity, occupational exposure, and history of knee injury have been associated with the development of the disease [8,9,10]. In addition to accumulation of risk factors, aging of the population plays a key role in the increasing prevalence of knee OA. Despite the increasing incidence of OA and the substantial disability associated with the disease, to our knowledge, few studies have focused on primary prevention efforts [13,14,15,16,17]. While OA prevention across all ages is important, preventive interventions focused primarily on older populations may have a limited effect due to prolonged exposure to risk factors earlier in life. Primary prevention efforts that raise awareness of modifiable OA risk factors in younger populations may offer a greater impact
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